America is at a crossroads; will she reverse her current path of destruction or will she slip in the dark chasm of history like so many civilizations of the past?

If the cycles of history are true then America is in for harder times before things get better. Looking at both The Fourth Turning and the Tytler Cycle we can see America is in for rough times. The Tytler Cycle show that every civilization follows a cycle that repeats about every 200 years. This cycle shows that bondage leads to spiritual faith leads to courage leads to liberty leads to abundance leads to selfishness leads to complacency leads to apathy lead to dependence which leads back to bondage. Stop a minute and think of where we are as a country in that cycle. I have talked with many friends or been to presentations where this cycle is discussed and everyone agrees we are somewhere between selfishness and bondage. Looking at Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security they take up around 44% of the national budget and that is not including any other welfare programs. That looks like a dependant people to me. The Fourth Turning is a generational cycle which repeats about every 100 years. This cycle goes through a founding, awakening, unraveling then a crisis. America has been through three crisis turnings in its history which have been the Revolutionary War, the Civil War and the Great Depression/World War II. Looking at this cycle we are due for another crisis. There are many warnings of a major economic crisis looming and the war drums are beating against Iran which could be the major crisis we have to face as a nation. In each of the founding turnings America has changed its governments structure. The original government of the United States was federalism which is a small federal government with strong states that are on equal ground as the federal government. After the Civil War the government was changed to nationalism. Nationalism is a strong central government that rules over the state. After World War II the government shifted again, this time to Globalism where global entities like the United Nations have influence over the national government. What form of government will America have after the next crisis? There are three different outcomes I have thought about, but there are defiantly ones I have not thought of. I could see the nation waking up and returning to its constitution origin and a return to liberty, turning into a tyrannical socialist country living under bondage or breaking apart into smaller unions with various governmental types where some return to liberty and others go into bondage. In each turning, most of the people are living by the rules that made them successful in the last turning or two. Most people today are living by the 2nd turning(Awakening) rules which was get a job with a big institution until retirement or 3rd turning (unraveling) rules which was get a good job and have fun. We appear to be a few years into the 4th turning (crisis) and the rules have changed to focusing on family and community. Most people are still focused on their 3rd turning having fun and use it as an excuse of not having time to get educated or involved. As long as they are able to have fun there is no reason to make any changes. The Tytler cycle and the Fourth Turning show that tough times are ahead. Are we prepared to take on this challenge and make America great or will this be the crisis that destroys America? If America is to survive then the people need to begin preparing now before the major crisis hits. Unfortunately most people have not yet accepted the fact that we are on the path to destruction. I am reminded of Plato's Allegory of the Cave. In the Allegory of the Cave there are people in a cave chained so they can only look forward at the cave wall. Behind the people there is a large fire and a road. As things pass by on the road the people can see the shadows on the cave wall. To these people the shadows are reality and they give names to the shadows and make games of what will come next. One of the people gets out of their chains and heads out of the cave. As they approach the cave entrance the sun light is very painful to their eyes as they adjust to this new world. Working through the pain the person is able to see more as their eyesight adjusts to the sun light. The begin to see the world as it really is. They are able to see what the real objects look like and learn all about the world. After some time the person heads back into the cave to share their new found knowledge. All those left in the cave thinks this person is crazy because they no longer recognize the shadows like they use to. None of the people chained up want to leave the cave and think the person who has been to the surface is crazy. Many if not most people are like those chained up in the cave. They are happy to have a career, work towards retirement and have fun along the way; they are not interested in working to see truth. They go about their day leaving the problems of society to the big broken institutions to fix. In our nation the argument against making meaningful change is always that it will hurt a certain group such as the kids or the poor. Bastiat wrote "for it almost always happens that when the immediate consequence is favorable, the ultimate consequences are fatal, and the converse." As a nation if we are not willing to make painful decisions then America will slip in the dark chasm of history like so many civilizations of the past. By not making difficult and painful decisions now it will be much more painful for everyone in the near future as we face fatal consequences. As citizens we must be willing to sacrifice our entitlements or we will end up like Greece where the Greeks are refusing to give up their entitlements even though the country is broke and there is no more money to be had. To turn America around the people need to become more self sufficient and break the addiction to public money. We also need to wake up and realize big government is not the answer to all of our problems but usually makes the problems worse. To many people think you are crazy if you support ideas such as getting rid of the Department of Education and respond with something like "who will control education? " or "why are you against education?" The Department of Education has only been around for 32 years yet most people can't recognize that we have ever been able to survive without it. As a nation we think the national government is the answer to every problem and we need to shift that thinking back to local government. Has education gotten any better in this nation since the creation of the Department of Education? Has any problem gotten better since we shifted the responsibility to the Federal government? Many people complain about the Utah caucus system because they don't have time to spend about three hours one night every other year to do their civic duty because they are too busy having fun. How educated are these citizens on the issues when it comes to voting if they think three hours is too much time to spend? A few years ago I made a goal to meet every political candidate, which I could vote for, in person at least once if not a few times. I am amazed at what a difference this makes choosing who to vote for. The first time I did this I went to the polls know exactly why I liked the candidates I was voting for and what I didn't like for those not getting my vote. I am always disappointed at meet the candidate nights where many times the candidate and their family outnumbers the citizens there to hear from the candidate. Even if you don't agree with the candidate you can still learn a lot about what is going on in your government by hearing from each candidate. It makes me discouraged that people think three hours is too much time to make such important decisions, I think spending three hours an election cycle is just getting started in the process. It is hard to stay positive about the future of our country when the masses can't sacrifice even a few hours a year to make educated decisions that directly affect them. In our last city election there was a 17% voter turnout and that was considered a success because it was a much bigger turnout that usual. When the masses can't even spend half an hour to go vote is it possible to get them to sacrifice anything for their liberty? Every time there is a proposed cut in government spending all we hear about is how someone will suffer. We also hear how so many people will suffer if some new program is not implemented. I find it frustrating the people would rather have someone take care of them than have their own liberty. Liberty is hard work but so is everything else in life worth having. I found the Utah caucuses to be interesting this year. There was a huge generational gap where the older generation fought to keep the current politicians in office thinking they will fix the problems that they created while the younger generation was fighting to send new representatives. Talking with friends this seemed to be the trend all across the state. The young generally talked about the Constitution and liberty while the old generally talked about keeping things how they are. Locke wrote "People are not so easily got out of their old forms as some are apt to suggest. They are hardly to be prevailed with to amend the acknowledged faults in the frame they have been accustomed to. And if there be any original defects, or adventitious ones introduced by time or corruption, it is not an easy thing to get them changed, even when all the world sees there is an opportunity for it." We have the opportunity to change every election cycle but people vote for those they have become accustomed to over and over. Most people see the system is broke but few are willing to make any changes. Those who are encouraging true change are often labeled as radicals or crazies like the free person in the Allegory of the Cave. This year after the Utah State GOP Convention my only thought was "Welcome to the aristocracy" due to the fact the incumbents all did very well. Though we don't officially have royalty in this country it seems most people treat their senators and representatives as royalty just because they hold an office. Many people are not even willing to look at challengers having some issue with questioning the current representative yet complain daily the direction the country is going in. This reminds me of the statement by Benjamin Franklin "there is a natural inclination in mankind to kingly government." I am also reminded of the story of the Israelites demanding a king which ended up splitting their kingdom. I often wonder on why people are drawn to our version of royalty. Do people want a father/mother figure that will take care of all their problems, do they want to be on the winning side when they cast their vote, are they uneducated and go off of name recognition, do they want to stay with the person they are accustomed to, or is there some other driving force? For a modern example we can look at Nazi Germany to see how America is headed down the path to tyranny. The Germans where highly trained but poorly educated just like in America today. We have many specialized degrees and are very good at performing jobs but are very uneducated in anything that falls outside our career field. We are also no longer taught that each individual has a unique mission in life, instead we are just taught to get a job and do it well. A few other trends we are seeing that are similar are a huge increase in government spending for social programs, out of control regulation on businesses, national healthcare, nationalized education, mocking religions and prisons that are packed full. America is making the same mistakes and going down the same path as many powerful civilizations have in the past. Another modern example we can look at is the communism takeover of China. Moa was good as using class warfare to divide and control the people. Using class warfare he was able to use the people against each other to accomplish his goals. Today in America it appears class, race and religious warfare are all being used to split the country. With the people split they are too busy fighting each other to pay attention to the government and notice the moves toward tyranny. Race and class are often used to push bad agendas or to prevent the fixing of a serious issue. If you support controlling the boarders you are labeled as a racist. If you want to reform any entitlement programs you are a racist and hate poor people. Often the discussion of these issues quickly divert to charges of racism or class warfare instead of discussion the true issue and coming up with a solution. America's navy has shrunk to early 1900 levels and the strategic air force is the smallest it has been since the creation of the Air Force. With the troops and equipment being strained by many conflicts across the globe, will they be ready and strong enough to handle a real crisis? The British Empire was in a similar position at the start of WWII as money had been shifted from the military to social programs. Even though they were able to fight off the Nazi onslaught the British Empire still came to an end. Looking at the historical cycles, peoples unwillingness to sacrifice, being uneducated, loving fun more than duty, wanting royalty, out of control debt, a falling dollar and a strained military it is hard to see America reversing course and it feels like it may be already too late to avoid disaster. Even with all the negative issues I still have hope as I see more people moving away from the old trends and large institutions and trying something new. Home schools are becoming more accepted, charter schools are very popular and options such as online schools are being used. There is also a resurgence of backyard gardens, chickens and beekeeping as people attempt to be more self-sufficient. Candidates who support our founding principles such as Ron Paul are also becoming more popular especially with the younger crowd. I believe the younger generations are more open to change since they are growing up in the broken system from entitlement programs which are bankrupting the country to schools which are no longer family friendly institutions. They have not grown up where these institutions were more of a benefit to society. They don't see Social Security as a benefit but a huge liability. Generation X may be the first generation that does not do financially better than their parents. It also seems the younger generations have little respect for titles and authority. Respect must be earned and it is not earned by having some title. This allows authority and decisions to be questioned on if they decisions are good or not. Generation X has started to change the business world, focusing more on a balanced work/home life instead of focusing on climbing the career ladder. There is also a change to team environments where everyone has a say instead of a boss telling employees what to do. Generation X does not believe in starting at the bottom of a company and working their way up but believe in being heard and part of the decision processes. This attitude toward team work and listening to everyone's ideas may be what we need to get real solutions. The liberty movement has a way of uniting people that will be key in bringing about positive change. My friend Amanda sums it up best "If you tell me you are a Ron Pauler or are into liberty or you are a libertarian, I don't need to know your name, I don't need to know if you like sushi or where you are from because we are brother and sister or we are sister and sister." I am amazed at the diversity of the liberty crowd and how accepting they are of anyone that supports the liberty agenda. It is this kind of willingness to accept others that will be needed to create a movement that is able to win over the people of America. This is the attitude needed to put aside issues and focus on the form of liberty. I feel there is hope left to save America as people are starting to wake up to what is going on. I pray that enough people will wake up and be willing to take a stand before it is too late. We need to have enough people with a solid education to help others as they wake up and look for true leadership through the tough times ahead. If enough Americans are willing to learn the founding principles and make the tough changes in their own lives then there is a chance to turn this disaster around. Through improving our own lives by doing the hard work to become more self-sufficient and knowledgeable we can be an example to our family, friend and neighbors and spread the spirit of liberty. I think we all have the spirit of liberty within us but is has been put to sleep with entertainment and an easy life. As this sprit awakens people will realize that hard work and focus on family and community are what is important in life and much more satisfying that any entertainment. If we can spark this spirit in enough people it just may become the epidemic we need to avoid disaster. The change needed is not going to come from government but from the people themselves. This change will not be easy or quick but the sooner the spirit of liberty can spread the sooner small changes can become large changes.